Can Bitcoin Survive - Part 3

tháng 12 05, 2018 No comments

This bear market is a “forrest fire” raging through the crypto ecosystem. It is necessary for a healthy ecosystem to clear the deadwood and allow new more resilient shoots to sprout and grow. What is important is to take stock of your position understand the changes and identify which are the new and innovative unicorns. Do this without the baggage and drag and of emotional attachments to any pet projects. It is your money and your future.

You may have lost a good part of your investment, but it is relative. The ratio of your crypto worth is still the same. Re-evaluate your investment strategy and spot those unicorns that are sure to appear. They are usually the silent ones. Above all remember it is only money, and when one door closes another opens.

If you need empathy hope and direction, this video will help you reset your bearings.

After The Fire.

You will no doubt hear all the reasons why the bear market set in. Perhaps they all play a part but really going back to history and saying crypto have always drop 90% and then risen to new heights, therefore just hoddle, think again. History does not repeat. It Rhymes. The conditions of the future are different from the past.

A blockchain without a token is just another database. BTC is just another token. It may not survive or more likely remain in its’ premium position but blockchain technology will change, evolve and improve. Take a wide angle look at this space. Like transport technology, we needed the horse and buggy to develop the automobile and the formula one speedster. Take a critical unemotional look at your pet projects. This space moves faster than the internet age. Ten years is too long for a project to be still in its’ infancy. More likely the evolution have taken place and you have been left behind.

Blockchain is an internet technology. If your project is not growing then it is dying. That is the unemotional unvarnished truth. Blockchain technology have moved from BTC to Ethereum to EOS. There is a whole new ecosystem built around EOS. This ecosystem is growing and gaining new users everyday.

Eos Knights – 3700 daily users and growing. You can earn real money (EOS) by mining and crafting items. Businesses will set up to do this on an industrial scale because there is a real revenue stream here. Users spend an average of $6 a day on Eos Knights compared to about 30 cents per month on the most popular online game today. The gaming industry have taken notice and are rushing to build and incorporate blockchain technology into their products. This is only possible today on the EOSIO platform.

BetDice, EosPoker and a host of other gambling dapps are launching on the EOS platform. Developing on the EOS blockchain bypasses the licencing, identity and fiat on/off ramp issues. They are designed to transition into Decentralised Autonomous Corporations and so be impossible to shut down. Currently, for the investor returns of 1% a day is the norm. This situation will not last. Price of tokens in the best of these DAC will rise to reflect a more normal rate of return.

EVA will disrupt the ride share industry because it gives most of the income and control back to the drivers and users. Everipedia will replace Wikipedia because a system will be in place to rank and value truth and facts. EDNA seeks to give back control of bio-metric information to the individual. Of course it is only logical that new versions of Youtube, Facebook, Instagram, Wechat will launch, moving away from push ad based systems where your private information is a commodity to these behemoth. A new email system will arise where unsolicited spam will be a thing of the past.

The most interesting aspect of the EOS blockchain is free transactions. Because of this it will be possible to introduce Universal Basic Income. The concept that every living person on this planet will have access to a basic income. We are moving into a new future where the concept of work, jobs and income will change. When we solve fusion power, which is looking promising, hunger will be a thing of the past. We will be able to synthesise our food and reshape our environment with abundance of free energy. Payments can be made instantly and for free to every account in the system. The only question is where this new wealth for distribution will come from. Dan Larimer proposes his concept of Universal Resource Income where the income from resource trading on the EOS blockchain is distributed. I have no doubt that something like this will be the future as the economy depends on people spending and discouraging uneconomic static wealth accumulation.

How will this bear market play out?

The IMF have advised governments to look into blockchain currencies. Venezuela have introduced the Petro, Iran have indicated that they want to develop a digital currency. The biggest hurdle that they will encounter if they use a private blockchain is recruiting an army of developers, security and a useable wallet.

The only viable solution is to develop on a public blockchain and that blockchain will be EOS. A government can effortlessly issue their national currency on the EOS blockchain. They will have full control over its’ issuance, be able to give their citizens full transparency over monetary and fiscal policies, security, free instant transactions and have many mobile wallets to choose from.

With Bancor these currencies, even if they are on sister chains and be moved effortlessly from one to the other effectively solving the problem of currency translation. Perhaps the concept of a stable coin is unnecessary. Value can just be moved and interchange from one to another through the Bancor network.

This brings us back to the existing bear market. How will it play out? Coins don’t die. Each will have its’ own band of converts and die hard users. The value of each will depend on utility and user base. EOS will probably become the most valuable token and most used blockchain. BTC may evolve to be a digital asset and a store of value. Money will remain the purview of governments and be used as the prime legal tender within their own boundaries with the assurance that if they abuse this privilege their citizens will simply switch to another token.

Finally, please beware. These are only my predictions and not facts. Critique the reasoning behind and do your own research. Good Luck.

5 Hot AirDrop Legit Dibulan Desember 2018

tháng 12 04, 2018 airdrop, cryptocurrency No comments

Bulan Desember akan jadi bulan yang menyenangkan bagi para pemburu Airdrop (coin gratis) untuk menambah pendapatnya secara cuma cuma, setidaknya ada 6 Event airdrop yang akan terjadi di bulan desemberu

1. Pndi X (NXPS)

Pundi X adalah perusahaan blockchain yang berbasis di Indonesi, pundi x bertujuan mengubah bisnis retail dengan konsep POS hingga membuat penjualan crypto sangat mudah.

mereka mengadakan give away minguan, untuk mengikutinya anda harus memiliki token pundix (NXPS) Diwallet yang memiliki private key give away ini akan dilakukan hingga januari 2019.

Untuk informasi lebih lanjut kunjungi Blognya

2. WAX (WAX)

Worldwide Asset eXchange atau WAX adalah layanan lerdagangan barang barangfisik dan virtual seperti skin, vocher dan lainya secara peer -to-peer, layanan gratis ini akan melakukan pembaruan diakhir 2018 dan pemengang token lama lama akan mendaptkan token baru.

Untuk info lebih lanjut kunjungi Postingan Blognya

3. Crypto.com

Crypto.com adalah platfom perdagangan secara nyaman dan mudah, mereka akan memberika giveaway bagi pemegang coin MCO di wallet crypto.com dan Card APP.
Untuk informasi lebih lanjut kunjungi website mereka Crypto.com

4. Storm

Storm adalah platfom prnyedia tugas tugas micro yang terhubung dengan strom market dan strom player, platfom ini dirancang khusus untuk gamer, pengiklan dan token ini dirancang dengan ERC-20, akan tetapi token ini tidak dijual dikarenakan untyuk mendorong adopsi to0ken ini. perusahaan ini akan mengadakan even airdrop terakhir pada tanggan 7 desember 2018 dan untuk tata cara dan informasi lebih lengkap silahkan kunjungi blog StromToken.

5. WePower

WePower perfokus pada industri energi terbarukan dan didistrikustikan dan dijual dalam kontrak cerdas, dalam RoadMap mereka WePower akan ada distribusi token kesemua pemegang token

Sebenarnya masih banyak event AirDrop di bulan disember, akan tetapi akan saya bahasa di postingan berikutnya.

Can Bitcoin Survive - Part 2

tháng 12 04, 2018 No comments

The Bitcoin Cash Hash War

At 10.30 Craig Wright reveals his motive. That he wants to crush Roger and Jihan totally. He wants them to sell everything hey have to support ABC. At 11.30 Craig reveals that he(SV) is selling BTC. Today BTC fell through 4000. There will be panic. Lots of people have and are going to lose more money holding BTC or any crypto for that matter as they are all pegged to BTC. There will be a rush for the exits.

Whether Craig is Satoshi or not is irrelevant. This guy can certainly act on his pronouncements. He claims Roger and Jihan has at most 1.5 million BCH and not much BTC. Perhaps his group is selling BTC probably accumulated at less than $100. $3000 is still very good profit so we can say he can sell right down to $0 and still be smiling. Jihan has an IPO coming up. If BTC tanks like it is now he can kiss that IPO goodbye.

Bitcoin ABC hash rate just tanked today. Could be a switch to BTC to minimise losses but SV is still mining on. So Craig’s claim that ABC miners will give up before he does bears up. If that hash rate does not return ABC is toast.

How will this end?

Craig’s motive seem to be to get the banks and corporations to use BSV. Possibly a top down approach with banks offering BSV accounts to all their customers. If the incentive to banks is also controlling BSV then it could work. The road will be long nevertheless which is why he mentioned 2026.

BTC will not survive this price drop. It means no further development in mining technology. Some miners will shut down to lower the difficulty towards economic price equilibrium, and fire up again if the price recovers. If the Chain Death Spiral sets in then it is curtains. Block time will go so long that the chain will be unusable.

Who will be the winner

EOS is a third generation blockchain. The first was BTC with smart money. The second was Ethereum with smart contracts. And Eos with Smart contracts at scale. BTC depended on speculative money coming in from the real world economy. Ethereum depended on real world money coming into IPOs. EOS however is able to tap into sustainable real world income streams.

Whether you approve of gambling or not the gambling dapps on EOS are the first sustainable economically viable activity on a blockchain. This is real. Gambling is a human activity like eating and sleeping and sex. The operative word is sustainable. My estimate is that 10,000 Eos or roughly 40,000 dollars is now flowing into the EOS ecosystem daily and will escalate exponentially. This is real money coming in and it is here to stay and grow the ecosystem. Not speculation.

Then you will have Dapps like EVA taping into the ride share market. Another revenue stream from the real world economy and there could be others on the horizon.

If I am right about this then we should see a decoupling of EOS from BTC. That is the price of EOS will no longer follow BTC going down. Lets lay back and see how this plays out in the next few days.

Can Bitcoin Survive

tháng 12 04, 2018 No comments

If bitcoin was going to be a reserve currency it would have by now.

From its’ peak of 20K in January of this year it has drop month after month and is poised to break below 4000 soon. If bitcoin was going to be a reserve currency and hit mainstream, used by everyone as money then it would have done so by now. At least the adoption would be on an upward slope.

The above graph clearly shows that adoption growth stopped in January and we have been on a downward trend ever since. In the world of the internet, if you are not growing then you are dying. That is the awful truth. Bitcoin is just too volatile to be used as money. For that we need a stable coin. As a reserve currency, there is just too much push back from central banks. They are unable to control the issuance of bitcoins and they certainly do not want to elevate Satoshi and all the early adopters to become the richest people in the world. Even richer than countries. No no most countries that have large holdings of gold will prefer that gold be the reserve currency. The problem is that real gold reserves are not held by countries like the UK, EU and USA. They play around with paper gold and so far they have managed to hold back the price of real gold. The new Shanghai gold exchange and the possibility of a gold backed Yuan may break this impasse. We shall see.

Is this the end of the road for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin weakness is also its’ perceived strength – mining. As the price tracked upwards and asic miners became more efficient, home miners were driven out of the market towards large scale industrial miners controlling a few mining pools. This huge waste of energy to secure the chain would be fine if there was not another way. As it is when the price starts tracking downwards, all marginal operators will have to shut operations. No miner can afford to mine at a loss for long. The last to holdout will be those with access to the cheapest electricity and even these will have to give up as bitcoin price track towards $3000.

With the sharp drop in difficulty, block time for BTC have started to lengthen. This drop in difficulty is caused both by the Bitcoin Cash wars as well as the drop in price. Bitcoin may yet get snared up in the dreaded “chain death spiral“. 11 more days to the next difficulty adjustment.

Proof of Work and Proof of Stake

If you really don’t need to spend millions of dollars in electricity to secure the chain then why should you? Proof of work proponents have always insisted that we have to and that proof of stake is inherently flawed as it favours those who hold the most coins.

The EOS chain is delegated proof of stake, and have been live since June. It has humm along effortlessly gathering adoption and users at measurable rate weekly. Refer to Blocktivity and Dapp Radar. Barely 6 months old and there is an increasing number of high volume dapps building on the chain. Proof of stake works. EOS works and continues to improve with every update and upgrade.

The way to become money is not to try to be money.

Money is what everyone accepts as money. Unlike Bitcoin and almost all other cryptos EOS does not try to become money. It is a platform for fast, secure and free transactions. Because of this central banks may issue their currency on the EOS mainnet or their own sister chain. Cross chain transactions will not be a problem when transacting across several national currencies. Being a platform token EOS will not be a stable coin.

A stable token will emerge and gain worldwide adoption to the extent that everything worldwide is priced in this stable unit. What this is will be is yet to be seen but it is likely that something will happen. Perhaps the Bancor algorithm could pave the way towards such a stable coin or an exchange unit.

If this is the future then Bitcoin will have no future. We shall see.

Does the Floor System Discourage Bank Lending?

tháng 12 03, 2018 No comments

David Beckworth has a new post up suggesting that the Fed's floor system has discouraged bank lending by making interest-bearing reserves a relatively more attractive investment; see here. I've been hearing this story a lot lately, but I can't say it makes a whole lot of sense to me.

Here's how I think about it. Consider the pre-2008 "corridor" system where the Fed targeted the federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate (FFR) traded between the upper and lower bounds of the corridor--the upper bound given by the discount rate and the lower bound given by the zero interest-on-reserves (IOR) rate. The Fed achieved its target FFR by managing the supply of reserves through open-market operations involving short-term treasury debt.

Consider a given target interest rate equal to (say) 4%. Since the Fed is financing its asset holdings (USTs yielding 4%) with 0% reserves, it is making a profit on the spread, which it remits to the treasury. Another way of looking at this is that the treasury has saved a 4% interest expense on that part of its debt purchased by the Fed (the treasury would have had to find some additional funds to pay for that interest expense had it not been purchased by the Fed).

Now, suppose that the Fed wants to achieve its target interest rate by paying 4% on reserves. The supply of reserves need not change. The yield on USTs need not change. Bank lending need not change. The only thing that changes is that the Fed now incurs an interest expense of 4% on reserves. The Fed's profit in this case go to zero and the remittances to the treasury are reduced accordingly. From the treasury's perspective, it may as well have sold the treasuries bought by the Fed to the private sector instead.

But the question here is why one would think that moving from a corridor system to a floor system with interest-bearing reserves inherently discourages bank lending. It is true that bank lending is discouraged by raising the IOR rate. But is it not discouraged in exactly the same way by an equivalent increase in the FFR? If I am reading the critics correctly (and I may not be), the complaint seems to be more with where the policy rate is set, as opposed to anything inherent in the operating system. If the complaint is that the IOR has been set too high, I'm willing to agree. But I would have had the same complaint had the FFR been set too high under the old corridor system.

Alright, now let's take a look at some of the data presented by David. Here, I replicate his Panel A depicting the evolution of the composition of bank assets.

David wants to direct our attention to the period after 2008 when the Fed flooded the banking system with reserves and started paying a positive IOR rate. The large rise in the orange line since 2008 was due almost entirely to reserves and not other safe assets. This suggests that banks were motivated to hold interest-bearing reserves instead of private-sector interest-bearing assets (loans). He writes:

Something big happened in 2008 that continues to the present that caused banks to allocate more of their portfolios to cash assets and less to loans. While the financial crisis surely was a part of the initial rebalancing, it is hard to attribute what appears to be 10-year structural change to the crisis alone. Instead, it seems more consistent with the critics view that the floor system itself has fundamentally changed bank portfolios allocation.

I think the diagram above is rather misleading since all it shows is portfolio composition and not the level of bank lending. Here's what the picture looks like when we take the same data and deflate it by the GDP instead of bank assets,

According to this picture, bank lending is close to 50% of GDP, not far off its historical average and considerably higher than in the decade following the S&L crisis (1986-1995). Here's what commercial and industrial loans as a ratio of GDP looks like:

It's no surprise that bank lending contracted during and shortly after the crisis. One could even make the argument that paying positive IOR contributed to the contraction. But as I mentioned above, one could have made the same argument had the FFR been kept at 25bp. Again, this criticism has less to do with the operating system than it does with where the policy rate was set. In any case, note that commercial and industrial loans are presently above their pre-crisis levels (as a ratio of GDP).

To sum up, I do not believe that a floor system inherently discourages bank lending as some critics appear to be arguing. Now that the Fed is paying IOR, reserves are essentially viewed by banks as an alternative form of interest-bearing government debt. New regulations since the crisis have induced banks to load up on safe government assets. But as the following figure shows, this has not come at the expense of private lending.

Banks are lending about as much as they have over the past 50 years (relative to GDP). Bank lending as a ratio of bank assets may be low, but this is because banks are loaded up on safe assets--not because they've cut back on their lending activity.

Yuk Kenali Sejarah Awal mula cryptocurrency di dunia

tháng 12 03, 2018 blockchain, cryptocurrency No comments

Meskipun Bitcoin adalah cryptocurrency pertama yang terdesntralisasi tetapi bukan cryptocurrency yang pertama dibuat karena sejarah cryptocurrency di mulai pada tahun 1990 setelah cryptographer asal Amerika David Cahuan yang menggagas sebuah ide yang dinamakan blind signature yang dituangkan dalam makalahnya yang berjuduk Blind Signature For Untraceable Payments“, ia menjelaskan blind signature merupakan suatu bentuk tanda tangan digital dimana isi pesan yang tercantum akan dienkripsi terlebih sebelum ditanda tangani. Dalam makalah tersebut juga Ia menyampaikan pandangannya terhadap hubungan antara uang dan privasi. Chaum percaya bahwa untuk menjalani perdagangan yang aman.

Pada tahun 1990 Chaum mendirikan DigiCah yang menjadi Cryptocurrency pertama di Amsterdam, ide yang dibawakan oleh digicash sangat luarbiasa hingga menarik perhatian pers saat itu. DigiCah dipercaya mampu untuk menjadi pengaman transaksi dari satu titik ke titik lain.

Pendiri DigiCash berprinsip bahwa produk hanya akan dijual ke sector bank dan hal ini pula lah yang membuat DigiCash runtuh karena tidak ada bank yang mau menggunakan produknya dan DigiCash pun tutup pada tahun 1998 karena kehabisan uang.

Pada tahun 1996 Dr. Douglas Jackson dan Barry K. Downey mendirikan E-Gold sebuah alat transaksi digital berbasis emas dan perak. Metodo E-Gold adalah dimana pengguna membuat akun E-Gold dan menyimpan emas mereka ke E-Gold, kemudian E-Gold akan melakukan kredit dia kaun pengguna dan kredit itu bias di kirim ke merchant atau ke sesame pengguna E-Gold. Sayangnya USA Partiot Act membuat regulasi yang ketat kepada badan usaha yang bergerak di moneytransfer untuk memiliki lisensi khusus yang membuat E-Gold merasa keberatan untuk memenuhinya dan akhirnya E-Gold berakhir pada tahun 2015

Tahun 1998 Beenz dan Flooz berdiri. Beenz didirikan oleh Charles Cohen, dan Flooz didirikan oleh Robert Levitan, keduanya juga memiliki konsep bisnis yang sama yaitu, dimana pengguna dibayar untuk melakukan aktifitas internet seperti biasa di ISP tertentu, Setelah pengguna mengumpulkan sejumlah Beenz atau Flooz, mereka dapat menggunakannya untuk membeli barang dari online merchant yang sudah bekerja sama dengan merekah. kemudian pada tahun 1999 InternetCash.com berdiri salah satu perusahaan cryptocurrency lainnya yang bersaingan dengan visa dan MasterCaD, InternetCash.com dinyatakan melebihi standar aman transaksi online karena mampu menjaga keaslian mulai dari jumlah yang dipertukarkan sampai bagai mana transaksi terjadi. Naman sayang mereka bangkrut pada tahun 2000 ketika Amerika dilanda dot-com bubble burst.

Era Blockchain
Pada tahun 2009 Cryptocurrency Bitcoin muncul, Bitcoin besutan satosinakamoto biasa dibilang Cryptocurrency yang sangat sukses dan fenomenal bahkan harganyapun jauh melebihi haraga mata uang fiat hingga di dicintai dan dihujat oleh banyak kalangan, Bitcoin adalah implementasi dari Teknologi Blockchain sebuah teknologi yang terdesntralisasi dan tidak terpusat. Diera ini banyak cryptocurrency bermunculan dan bahkan orang membuat cryptocurrency diera ini begitu sangat mudah, tetapi cryptocurrency saat ini tidak mendapat restu dafi pihak regulator sehingga membuatnya sangat fluktuatif dan tidak ada otoritas yang menjamin hingga rentan dengan peretasan.

Itulah sejarah cryptocurreny, sejarahnya ternyata sudah dimulai diera 90an. Meskipun cryptocurrency era blockchain sangat kontroversial akan tetapi banyak pihak yang menyukai dan mengadopsinya sehingga crypto urrency memiliki masadepan cerah.